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Confidence scoring

base_confidence is a float between 0.0 and 1.0, stored once per page, recomputed on content change. It is a time-independent quality estimate that answers how much the count and quality of a page’s sources justify trusting it.

base_confidence = min(distinct_source_count / 3, 1.0) × 0.5 + avg(source_quality) × 0.5

Sources are deduplicated by normalized source ID before counting. Half the score comes from how many distinct sources back the page (capped at three), and half from the average quality of those sources. See source quality buckets for the per-bucket quality scores and schemas for source ID canonicalization.

When a command creates a page, use these defaults unless the formula yields a different value.

Operation base_confidence Formula
/ingest (single source) per source Computed from source quality
/ingest (multi-source) computed min(N/3, 1) × 0.5 + avg_q × 0.5
/ingest (URL source) computed 0.17 + 0.5 × source_quality
/capture 0.42 1 source at session_transcript 0.5
/ingest-claude 0.42 1 source at claude-chat 0.3, rounded up
/research typically 0.85+ Multiple high-quality sources
/update 0.59 Existing page plus new source
/cross-linker unchanged Does not modify confidence

/lint flags pages with base_confidence < 0.4 as low-confidence, backed by few or weak sources. See provenance markers for the separate audit trail on individual claims, and commands for what each operation does.